The Polymarket Scandal is Driving Misinformation

So, I get a notification on some news about Fable being released. Command AI. It was basically saying that Fable 5 would be re-released under certain geo restrictions. Like, so basically, if you're in the US, it would be um it would be available to you. An earlier version of this brief briefly incorrectly reported that Fable 5 had been restored on June 18th with nationalitybased controls. That has been corrected. So Fable 5 isn't back. Similarly, GBT 5.6 was also uh rumored to be released this week or people were getting excited about this and this was meant to be cuz they they did some updates to 5.5 cyber to make it more better for cyber security and this and that. But there are rumors about Chachi GPT 5.6 six. In the first day of the primary prediction window, over $1.1 million in poly market contracts have been staked on fe GBT 5.6 launch and the evidence of the model was already running silently cuz people were using uh GB Chat GBT and things were taking longer than GBT 5.5 which made which made them feel like that they were there's something happening behind the scenes. I don't know. All of this to be said. I mean how much do you know about poly market? Have you have you heard about it before? Yeah. Uh it it's a place where you do gambling. They call it prediction prediction markets, right? Yeah. These prediction markets you can basically bet on anything, right? You could and um there are some adverts which we'll get into in a second, but this there was an example of someone betting on Donald Trump saying the word January this month, right? and you literally just uh put in something. It could be that Sambars are going to be late streaming on Command AI next week, you know, and depending on the um you know, the curiosity, the clickbait, the whatever it is, people can then start putting money into that prediction. Whatever it is, it it sounds interesting and and whatever. Uh, sounds really cool. But, uh, what this is subject to is similar to, um, pump and pump fun. Pump.f fun. Do you remember that? Where influencers, people who are on YouTube, people who have influence would create a meme coin and draw loads of hype to it and then take all that away and sell it all. Sell it and and dump and then that memecoin would just fall. It's literally like in the name and it's crazy. And so people are using their influence to do that. In the same way, Poly Market is probably going to go down that same route where people with influence are going to create a as you say like create something. Maybe it's insider, maybe it's insider or not. All you need is an there's two there's two aspects to it. Influencer and insider knowledge. They're going to start putting crazy predictions and and then you know I don't I don't know. I haven't seen any influencer do this, but you might see on stream, have you seen Poly Market? I've just put a bet on this that I think is going to happen. And it just drives up a bunch of curiosity and whatever. And they they can do that because they have that influence. Um, I said I'd talk about the adverts. The there's these adverts that are going around where they're one they are undisclosed adverts which is against FTC uh like you know you have to disclose when you're doing an advert and it so they've got influencers basically filming themselves betting on Donald Trump saying the word January this month and he's watching Donald Trump's speech and Donald Trump sure enough says January and he's like yes I won on Poly Market and whatever. But the interesting thing is is that you know you know if you build a product and you record an advert of you using that product to prove that it's you know it's works and it does what it says on the tin and all the rest of it. Well they built a website that these influencers were using to bet on Donald Trump say in January and if you zoom in it says Poly Market in the URL but the problem is in in the it's actually a a lowercase L. So, it's an old gamer thing where if you wanted an L instead of an I or you wanted people to read, do you know what I mean? If you wanted if the user tag was already taken with the letter I, you could say um the letter L or vice versa. And so, if you compare these two right now, you see they don't look any different. So they made a website called PO market that these influencers would go to and that's what they would film their videos on instead of actually using the frigin tool itself to show that it actually works. Every bet they they made would give them a return on like $1,000 or something stupid or or $10,000. It was stupid. I don't know. But then yeah, aside of all that the trust is kind of going. So, this is just and to tie all of this back into Fable 5 and GBT 5.6 and insider trading, this is influencing the market because people are going to it's going to be the spread of misinformation that people are going to use this as some sort of evidence to say something is or isn't going to happen. Oh, uh, Poly Market is up 1.1 million on GPT 5.6 six being released this week and and people are reporting on it and being like you know and using it as a a source you know the idea of poly market it's quite interesting how how humans behave when they have to put their money where their mouth is that that's like it's genuinely interesting but it's you know subject to insider trading and now we have a a much bigger scandal which is like literally scamming like influencers showing you, oh, I just made 500 bucks, and then it's it's just it's just not true. It's it just never ever happened. What's really interesting also in addition there were some um uh they I don't know who who it was uh but they they followed the exact um like steps that these influencers did and they f like they checked them. They checked what would happen if you would actually go ahead and do that. And in pretty much all the cases that they checked, you would lose like 90% of your money. So yeah, the house always wins. The house always wins. Yeah. Yeah. I just think this is like it's an interesting thing, but it's a net negative on society, I think. And I hate to sound like a [ __ ] boomer on this, but you're going to get people who not I I don't I it's equal insider trading slash people just just throwing [ __ ] at the wall and seeing what sticks and and and seeing if they can drive. So it's it's cyclical. This is the thing, right? It's like yeah, people will think that there's something going on because lots of people are betting on it. And in there, there's probably some philosophical theory in here where one thing drives the other and actually ends up being true because a bunch of people betted on this one thing which inherently made it true in the end. Do you know what I mean? It could be oh, I don't know like um something that it's able to the is able to be forced because of the very facts on polyark. Is that I don't know if I'm making sense there, but I don't know. I this can happen like with insider trading or also what humans do for example like with Norway France game tonight what if the Norway goalkeeper decides to put you know a million bucks here on Norway losing and on purpose losing I'm not this is just like a really bad example but to make it clear or he sees that loads of people in favor of France and psychic ally that freaked that freaks him the [ __ ] out and then he's like he plays really badly because he's like psychologically affected by no one. Do you know another stupid example but you know what I mean like intentionally being affected by it. I I know I know what you mean but uh this like idea of having everything as a as a gambling machine goes now far beyond this and this is it's just so [ __ ] up. Do you know about like when you have a credit card, you buy with your credit card and sometimes you get a some points and sometimes you get a percentage cash back. Like if you use the Apple credit card, you buy from the Apple store and they give you like 2% or something back. I don't know the exact percentage, but they make they give you money back. Now there is a company doing pay now. Uh no, buy now pay maybe. You know there is um buy now pay later. That's the whole idea of credit cards. You pay you buy it now and you pay it later. Now there is this company they don't offer you I don't know the name of the company but they don't offer you a cash back but they do offer you 100% kind of like a cash back with a very slight chance. So there every time you buy something there is a really slight chance that you won't have to pay for it. It is a lottery. It is literally gambling. So spend more money. If you spend more money, there is a higher chance that you won't pay for some of it. And the idea behind it is literally the same as cash back, but they are subsidizing it from, you know, everybody else just to pay someone the whole amount and not just 2%. And it's just like, yeah, I guess we are all gonna uh start gamble. This is part of a larger conversation on my show, Command AI, which we stream live every single week. We discuss the news and all things related to AI in the world of design and web. Catch us next week and join in the banter. Command AI.